That’s definitely the way the wind is blowing. The end game is: apps only come from Apple, supplemented with some trivial curated utility apps from the app store. The switch to ARM will cull some 3rd party apps. Sandboxing and security requirements will cull some more. The race to the bottom for app prices as the distinction between MacOS and IOS is blurred will drive even more developers away.
Apple has been openly hostile to pro users for some time now and this is the next step in cutting that segment of the market loose. I believe they’ve made a strategic decision that they want to serve the 90% of users who aren’t very demanding. The other 10% can go elsewhere. That’s a reversal of the Jobs era where pro users were courted since they were seen as influencers. Now pro users are seen as annoyance.